HIGHEST RISK REGION
Territories
LOWEST RISK REGION
West Coast
URBAN vs RURAL GAP
+1.6% DQ
MSAs ANALYZED
10
Urban vs Suburban vs Rural — Risk Profile Comparison
| Type | Loans | Avg FICO | Delinq Rate | Default Rate | Avg UPB |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Metro (Urban) | 8,450 | 618 | 4.2% | 1.8% | $245K |
| Suburban | 2,800 | 635 | 3.5% | 1.4% | $215K |
| Rural (RHS) | 1,009 | 598 | 5.8% | 2.5% | $148K |
RHS/Rural Risk: Rural borrowers show 38% higher delinquency (5.8% vs 4.2%) and 39% higher default rates than metro borrowers, despite lower loan amounts. This supports targeted monitoring for RHS program concentrations.
Regional Risk Comparison — 8 U.S. Regions
Top 10 MSA-Level Risk Analysis — Metro Statistical Areas
| MSA | State | Loans | Avg FICO | Delinq % | Housing Turnover % |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Miami-Fort Lauderdale | FL | 680 | 595 | 6.8% | 14.2% |
| Houston-Woodlands | TX | 520 | 608 | 5.2% | 11.8% |
| Chicago-Naperville | IL | 380 | 598 | 5.8% | 9.5% |
| Atlanta-Sandy Springs | GA | 410 | 605 | 5.5% | 12.1% |
| Dallas-Fort Worth | TX | 350 | 615 | 4.1% | 13.5% |
| Los Angeles-Long Beach | CA | 420 | 612 | 4.5% | 8.2% |
| Phoenix-Mesa | AZ | 290 | 622 | 3.5% | 15.8% |
| San Antonio-New Braunfels | TX | 210 | 610 | 4.8% | 12.4% |
| Tampa-St Petersburg | FL | 320 | 598 | 6.2% | 13.1% |
| Detroit-Warren | MI | 280 | 588 | 7.1% | 8.9% |
Housing Turnover Correlation: Phoenix (15.8% turnover) shows low delinquency (3.5%) despite moderate FICO, suggesting high housing demand supports loan performance. Detroit (8.9% turnover) shows the inverse — low turnover + low FICO = high delinquency (7.1%).